Top Industry Trends Cover

airbnb

s1-filings

Delivery-Company-logo

Online_Learning_Cover

PrivCo 50 Logo

1 YoqqmGfRodYeIejuBW6FQ

jcrew

3644843

Stripe-Company-Report-Logo

PetCare

PrivCo

none

In this Top Industry Trends Report, PrivCo looks at which industries are trending in the second half of 2020. We examine the top eight industries in our in-depth report - Enterprise Software, Consumer Services, HealthCare, SaaS, e-Commerce, Artificial Intelligence, FinTech, and Mobile.

In-depth coverage of the top ranking companies that performed well in sales and funding in their respected industries.

[Download a sample report](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/PrivCo50/Industry-Trends-2H2020/top-industry.pdf "Sample - Top Industry Report")

For full in-depth report, contact [sales team](https://www.privco.com/contact) for more information.

It covers everything you need to know about the companies that shaped their respective industry leading into 2021.


Top Industry Trends in 2021

We have recently published [PrivCo50](https://www.privco.com/insights/privco50-covid19-growth-companies "PrivCo50"), where Stripe became the most resilient FinTech company of 2020!  We take a deeper look into the rise of Stripe from it's inception to present day.

[Download Now](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/PrivCo50/Stripe-Company-Report.pdf "Rise of Stripe - Premier Fintech Payment Platform")

For additional information on our financial data and deal information, [click here](https://www.privco.com/pricing)


Company Spotlight: Stripe

The American Pet Products Association (APPA) states that in the U.S. alone, $95.7BN was spent on pet care in 2019.

[Download the Report](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/2020/Dec/PetTech.pdf "Rise of Pet Care Industry")

For additional information on our financial data and deal information, [click here](https://www.privco.com/pricing "Start for free, Upgrade for more!")

Inside look at the rise of pet ownership, care and service industry.

Exploring Digital Pet Care Growth

We have recently published [PrivCo50](https://www.privco.com/insights/privco50-covid19-growth-companies "PrivCo50"), where Instcart placed #1 on the Top 50 most resilient companies of 2020 list.  We are continuing our indepth looking into Instacart financial growth in 2020.

[Download now](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/PrivCo50/Instacart-No1Company-2020Report.pdf "Instacart - PrivCo50 Report")

For additional information on our financial data and deal information, [click here](https://www.privco.com/pricing)


Instacart's rocket growth during the pandemic of 2020.

Company Spotlight: Instacart

__INSTACART TAKES #1 SPOT IN PRIVCO’S TOP 50 RANKING__

PrivCo, a leader in private market intelligence, selected its PrivCo 50 ranking, a report that measures the business performance of private companies between March to October 2020, the months heavily impacted by COVID-19. The report found that grocery delivery service __Instacart__ was the fastest-growing business during the pandemic. The PrivCo 50 ranking takes into consideration all privately-owned companies based on their performance in a number of areas across the business, including funding, market valuation, projected revenue, and growth.

Access to the full ranking of PrivCo 50, [click here](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/PrivCo50/Covid-Growth-companies.pdf "PrivCo 50 - Top 50 Most Resilient Companies of 2020")

Ranking top-performing businesses between March-October 2020.

Top 50 Most Resilient Companies of 2020

Our industry report gives a data-driven look at private health & fitness growth companies and their revenues, top deals & investments, active investors, and deal activity in Q2/Q3 2020.

[Download the Report](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/2020/Nov/Future_of_Fitness.pdf "Health & Fitness Q2/Q3 Report")

For additional information on our financial data and deal information, [click here](https://www.privco.com/pricing/ "Subscribe now")

An inside view into the rise of digital on-demand fitness companies since the start of the pandemic.

Future of Fitness

In a world where remote learning has boomed during the pandemic, we round up a list of the growing K1-12 EdTech companies.  This report features data-driven insights from our finanical market intelligence platform. 

[Download the Report](https://cdn01.privco.com/public/reports/2020/Nov/Online_Learning_Companies.pdf "The Progressive Shift to Online Learning")

For additional information on our financial data and deal information, [click here](https://www.privco.com/pricing/ "Subscribe now")

We take a look at top remote learning investment trends in key financial verticals, funding activities, top deals, and more.

The Progressive Shift to Online Learning

Western Texas Intermediate crude oil has been hovering over the mid-teen level after settling at negative 37 dollars per barrel the day before the May expiry. Covid-19 has erased demand for crude, and the excess supply of crude has filled up all storages, causing traders and producers to pay money to offload their crude.
Since then, some wells in the US have begun shut-ins. Refiners have prolonged their spring maintenance most likely for the IMO 2020 standard but also to wind down their production given the collapse in the refined product price and demand. Indeed, with air and ground travel significantly reduced, the refining margin at some refiners has turned negative as well.
<img src="//images.ctfassets.net/5r58mz7ojzs1/5jvtjYNfhPuSnbLdFRzlXV/140b1d371e42042041a31f89145c9d9a/Assumed_demand_decline_curves_in_aviation_for_China_and_the_Rest_of_the_World.png" alt="demand projection and refiner runs"/>
However, another problem might emerge soon- the world will have too much crude oil but too little diesel. The collapse in gasoline and jet fuel demand makes it difficult to produce enough gasoil (diesel) when the product inventories for unwanted fuels limit storage capacity. Limitations on pipeline flow restrict the availability of critical crude oil feedstock and are additional obstacles to higher levels of refinery utilization. Across the board, most refining margins have turned negative because of unwanted gasoline and jet fuel products. And, If refinery utilization is reduced much below 70% let alone 60% overall refinery operations might be uneconomic, and more refinery units and whole plants can be shut.
<img src="//images.ctfassets.net/5r58mz7ojzs1/3qbDundoEDiLYIo0YuGLea/445a591eb6c30576775d664a6b0651de/surplus_deficit_jet_fuel__gasoline__and_diesel.png" alt="surplus/deficit jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel"/>
We can see from the projected surplus/deficit for different refined products, that jet fuel and gasoline will be in deep surplus while diesel in deep deficit. That is because of the aforementioned negative refining margin and subsequently projected shut-ins. The refining process of crude is such that a spectrum of products is produced. If only one of the products is in demand, the refiners still need to find storage for the rest, therefore rendering the whole process unprofitable.
The projected shortage in diesel might make the already strained logistic and supply chain issue more apparent in the coming months. With most of the world still rely heavily on e-commerce while WFH, the logistical consideration might be a bigger challenge for retailers and logistics companies alike.
The headwind in the industry might just prove to be the catalyst for wider adoption of freight and trucking logistic startups that introduce more price transparency and competition in the freight market.
The smart freight/marketplace sector has seen significant funding activities in the past few years. Last year alone, the industry has seen 39 deals totaling ~$3bn in value. Successful companies in the sector have emerged such as <a href="http://privco.com/company/convoy_private_stock_annual_report_financials" rel="noopener">Convoy</a>, <a href="http://privco.com/company/uship" rel="noopener">uShip</a>, <a href="http://privco.com/company/aptive-systems_private_stock_annual_report_financials" rel="noopener">Transfix</a>, <a href="http://privco.com/company/trucker-path_private_stock_annual_report_financials" rel="noopener">Trucker Path</a>, <a href="http://privco.com/company/arrive-logistics_private_stock_annual_report_financials" rel="noopener">Arrive Logistics</a>, and <a href="http://privco.com/company/loadsmart_private_stock_annual_report_financials" rel="noopener">Loadsmart</a>. These companies are pressuring incumbent freight brokers to pour capital into digital technologies to keep pace with emerging startups.

The collapse in gasoline and jet fuel demand makes it difficult to produce enough diesel.

Too much oil, too little diesel

Last month, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-paying-more-than-10-interest-on-1-billion-financing-announced-monday-11586297484" rel="noopener">The Wall Street Journal reported</a> that Airbnb will pay its new investors, Silver Lake and Sixth Street, more than 10 percent interest on $1B in debt financing. The debt financing also comes with warrants struck at a valuation of $18 billion. In 2017, Airbnb raised equity financing at a $31 billion valuation.
So what is Airbnb’s implied valuation today? You would be tempted to say $18B, based on the strike price of the warrants. But an alternative analysis tells a different story.
On the secondary shares exchanges, private investors tell us that Airbnb stock hasn’t traded recently but that if it did, those investors would start with bids in the range of $20–23B.
At PrivCo, however, we believe that you should compare Airbnb to the public comps. Take HLT (Hilton), which trades at approximately 3.13x 2019 revenue and 12.8x 2019 adjusted EBITDA. HLT is asset-light and owns 65 properties, manages 703 hotels, and franchises 5,342 hotels per their 2019 10-K so it’s a fair comparison to Airbnb. For 2020, analyst estimates consolidated on Yahoo Finance! (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/analysis?p=HLT" rel="noopener">HLT stock price</a>) suggest that HLT’s 2020 revenue will come in at $6.7B and the company will remain profitable, implying a 4.2x 2020 revenue multiple.
For Airbnb, a $20–23B valuation would imply 4.2–4.8x 2019 revenue or 9.1–10.5x 2020 revenue (see PrivCo’s 2020 revenue estimate below), markedly higher than HLT’s revenue multiple. With respect to EBITDA, Airbnb reported 2019 EBITDA of ($276.4M), as confirmed by The Wall Street Journal and PrivCo, so we cannot apply a multiple of negative EBITDA to our valuation picture.
<blockquote>For 2020, moreover, Airbnb is no longer a growth story (i.e., PrivCo estimates $2.2B in 2020 revenue vs. $4.8B revenue in 2019).</blockquote>
Our belief is that even if Airbnb deserves its 2019 revenue multiple or the same historical or future revenue multiples as an established company like HLT, Airbnb’s valuation is more in line with a figure like $10B than $20B. If Airbnb still commands a $20B multiple, it’s because either 1) secondary traders do not have access to the actuals, whether through PrivCo or elsewhere, 2) secondary stock cannot be shorted, or 3) people are willing to pay a premium for cool, tech brand names. But Airbnb has additional issues looming that threaten its long-term viability, including 1) overburdened hosts bought many properties to put on Airbnb and now can’t cover their costs (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bargain-with-the-devilbill-comes-due-for-overextended-airbnb-hosts-11588083336" rel="noopener">see WSJ</a>), and 2) increasing regulations, cleanliness, and safety might conspire to make the established industry brands more trusted than Airbnb in the wake of COVID-19.
We’ll stick with our $10B valuation estimate.
Additional resources:
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/airbnb-s-loss-nearly-doubles-in-fourth-quarter-before-virus-hit" rel="noopener">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/airbnb-s-loss-nearly-doubles-in-fourth-quarter-before-virus-hit</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnbs-coronavirus-crisis-burning-cash-angry-hosts-and-an-uncertain-future-11586365860?mod=searchresults&amp;page=1&amp;pos=1" rel="noopener">https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnbs-coronavirus-crisis-burning-cash-angry-hosts-and-an-uncertain-future-11586365860?mod=searchresults&amp;page=1&amp;pos=1</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.azfamily.com/news/investigations/cbs_5_investigates/short-term-rental-owners-unloading-properties-across-phoenix-area/article_9f68eb0c-8a9d-11ea-9e88-eb882b6e7b19.html" rel="noopener">https://www.azfamily.com/news/investigations/cbs_5_investigates/short-term-rental-owners-unloading-properties-across-phoenix-area/article_9f68eb0c-8a9d-11ea-9e88-eb882b6e7b19.html</a></li>
<li><a href="https://priceonomics.com/will-real-estate-investors-take-over-airbnb/" rel="noopener">https://priceonomics.com/will-real-estate-investors-take-over-airbnb/</a></li>
</ol>
<a href="https://privco.us20.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=afbef99f8b259924f025fd161&amp;id=35b26ae2db" rel="noopener">Sign up </a> for <a href="http://www.privco.com/" rel="noopener">PrivCo</a>’s daily newsletter to get updates on the startup world, funding rounds, acquisition deals, organizational news, and perspective on the economy.

What is Airbnb’s implied valuation today? You would be tempted to say $18B..alternative analysis says otherwise

PrivCo reports that Airbnb is worth $10B

<a href="http://privco.com/company/j-crew-group-inc" rel="noopener">J. Crew</a>, once a venerated purveyor of all things American prep, filed for bankruptcy this week. The coronavirus shut-in certainly put a big strain on its retail viability. However, the company’s problems started long before Covid-19. According to <a href="http://www.privco.com" rel="noopener">PrivCo</a>, a private company financial data startup, J. Crew has not seen a positive net income margin in five years.
It goes without saying that the fashion retail space has been extremely challenged for some time. In the sad wake of Henri Bendel, <a href="http://www.privco.com/company/barneys-new-york" rel="noopener">Barneys</a>, <a href="http://www.privco.com/company/lord-and-taylor-llc" rel="noopener">Lord and Taylor</a> and most recently <a href="http://www.privco.com/company/the-neiman-marcus-group-inc" rel="noopener">Neiman Marcus</a>, there is no shortage of sensational headlines proclaiming that retail is dead. At the same time, the industry has also seen exploding growth, with companies like Fashion Nova enjoying a 600% YoY growth rate, as a result of their loyal celebrity following and teen-friendly Instagram marketing.
When you contrast the fates of a legacy brand like J. Crew with a (no pun) Fashion Nova, a few lessons can be drawn. Part of J. Crew’s fall is the result of a cultural and design shift, while the second part touches on a vast business miscalculation. Below are some of the factors that contributed to J. Crew’s demise.
1. Influence matters
Some of the most successful and largely Internet-based brands have heavily relied on influencers.
Michelle Obama, circa 2008, may have been the peak J. Crew influence, back before the word itself even entered the public lexicon. After her now famed wearing of a J. Crew frock to a very public event, her popularity and all-American style energized and publicized the lilting brand. In a 2010 study, New York University professor David Yermack found that J. Crew’s stock increased 25% after Obama wore J.Crew on “The Tonight Show” in October 2008. Since the Obamas left office things have only gotten worse for J. Crew as Millennials have sought out craft-beer and bespoke experiences and rejected anything perceived as too commercial, including J.Crew’s branding.
2. Taste goes Urban
The early 2010s was clearly J. Crew’s heyday. The clean-cut, prep school look is equal parts good American virtue and aspirational fashion. Coming out of the financial crisis, nostalgia and austerity pushed people towards the lower price point of the wholesome lifestyle brand.
Indeed, 2010, the year before J. Crew was taken private by two private equity firms, saw the highest net and gross margins at 7.8% and 44.1% respectively.
However, there was a cultural shift brewing. As urban centers and Brooklyn hipsters gained more and more cultural influence, tastes in fashion shifted. The pastel, nautical and equestrian themes inspired by gardens, sails, and sables started to lose their allure. Hip hop style rooted in deep urbanism began to chip away at the collegiate inspired stylings of J. Crew.
The company made a yankee effort to modernize its brand, along with the likes of <a href="http://www.privco.com/company/kate-spade-llc" rel="noopener">Kate Spade</a> and the style evolution success story that is <a href="http://www.privco.com/company/tory-burch-llc" rel="noopener">Tory Burch</a>. For J. Crew, the overhaul may just have come too late.
3. Pricing
In 2013, at a J. Crew pinnacle, fashion director Jenna Lyons raised pricing across the product line. Leveraging Lyons’ style and visibility, J. Crew brought the brands to the runway, elevating both design and pricing.
Many loyal customers were outraged over $400 cashmere tops, sequin skirts, and velvet pumps. Instead of aspirational, J.Crew landed firmly out of reach and also out-of-touch, as brands emphasizing diversity and inclusivity took center stage, pushing J. Crew further, and irretrievably into the red.

There are many problems that ultimately culminated in J. Crew’s fall. Some of them misstep, but many are symptoms of a changing tide.

Troubled seas hit an iconic American brand

The pace of private companies seeking to go public has slowed nearly to a halt. In April, private companies filed only two S-1s. Despite the decrease in these filings, the number of startups in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry has held steady, representing nearly 50% of all S-1s filed since March 12, when COVID-19 was declared a national pandemic.
Although that the absolute number of pharma and biotech companies remained stable (single-digit filings pre month), the steady stream of companies going public is a sign of resilience in the industry. The makeup of these types of pharma and biotech companies are turning stable as cancer research accounts for a majority of all companies.
<img src="//images.ctfassets.net/5r58mz7ojzs1/7LtNcMToPZM3xS4NCeRg7Q/4f7317eb7e82566e25a80715c8ee5c14/S-1_Filing_Counts.png" alt="S-1 Filing Counts">
At PrivCo, we see two reasons that Pharma and Biotech companies are opting to go public. First, the sector has achieved oversized returns in the public markets since Covid-19. The large-cap S&amp;P biotech sector ETF gained 21%, the best monthly gain since its inception in 2006. The S&amp;P 500 health care index saw its best monthly gain in twenty years, on hopes for significant progress in the fight against Covid-19. Companies are capitalizing on the overall heightened industry multiples to boost their fundraising.
<img src="//images.ctfassets.net/5r58mz7ojzs1/3I32nXg2NFyddnxjkPb5Vo/1aa6a6d6a0f8526f148a319210ab640c/Percentage_of_biotech_pharma_filing_for_S-1.png" alt="Percentage of biotech:pharma filing for S-1">
Second, the Covid-19 pandemic has reduced the political risk of drug price regulation from Washington, boosting pharma companies’ forward-looking cashflows. The Pharma &amp; Biotech industry has a long R&amp;D timeline and a skewed risk-reward profile. Therefore, the prospect of greater profits poses a significant risk reduction for the industry.
<a href="https://privco.us20.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=afbef99f8b259924f025fd161&amp;id=35b26ae2db" rel="noopener">Sign up</a> for <a href="http://www.privco.com/" rel="noopener">PrivCo</a>’s daily newsletter to get updates on the startup world, funding rounds, acquisition deals, organizational news, and perspective on the economy.

Similar to the funding and M&A market, the pace for private companies to seek a public exit has slowed to a halt. April 2020 only saw 2…

Insights

Reports, lists and curated insights based on the most recent PrivCo data.

Top Industry Trends in 2021

Company Spotlight: Stripe

Exploring Digital Pet Care Growth

Company Spotlight: Instacart

Top 50 Most Resilient Companies of 2020

Future of Fitness

The Progressive Shift to Online Learning

Too much oil, too little diesel

PrivCo reports that Airbnb is worth $10B

Troubled seas hit an iconic American brand

The Pharma IPO Rush

Company

Links

.css-30sz60{width:130px;height:60px;position:relative;}

Insights

Reports, lists and curated insights based on the most recent PrivCo data.

Top Industry Trends in 2021

Company Spotlight: Stripe

Exploring Digital Pet Care Growth

Company Spotlight: Instacart

Top 50 Most Resilient Companies of 2020

Future of Fitness

The Progressive Shift to Online Learning

Too much oil, too little diesel

PrivCo reports that Airbnb is worth $10B

Troubled seas hit an iconic American brand

The Pharma IPO Rush